- Eric Balchunas has updated his odds on when spot Ethereum ETFs will start to trade.
- But itâs not the only sign that the funds may start to trade very soon.
US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds are almost here.
While the official launch date isnât yet set by the Securities and Exchange Commission, options traders, bettors and analysts offer clues suggesting that they may begin to trade over the next two weeks.
âThe general market consensus is that these ETFs will be launched sooner rather than later,â Jamie Sly, communications manager at crypto data firm CCData, recently told DL News.
Thatâs huge for the crypto community.
Ethereum surged 35% to $3,900 in May after the regulator green-lit the first stage of the applications.
Market watchers hope the upswing was just the start of a bigger wave.
The bet is that the final approval will enable the cryptocurrency to break its $4,800 all-time high from 2021 â replicating the success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January.
SECâs Gary Gensler
SEC Chair Gary Gensler delivered the first clue during a Congressional hearing last week.
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âI would envision sometime over the course of this summer,â he said.
Prospective issuers are working through the final step of the application process.
âThatâs working smoothly,â Gensler said.
Bloombergâs Eric Balchunas
Following Genslerâs comments, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas estimated spot Ethereum ETFs will launch by July 2.
âDecent chance they work to declare them effective the next week and get it off their plate before holiday weekend,â Balchunas tweeted, referring to US Independence Day on July 4
Bettors
Bettors are also becoming more bullish.
On betting platform Polymarket, odds that the ETFs will begin trading on July 4 have jumped from 28% last week to 76%.
Elsewhere, JPMorgan analysts suggest that spot Ethereum ETFs will start to trade around July and August ahead of the US election as crypto becomes a political issue.
Traders
Traders have poured nearly $240 million into bets that Ethereum will reach an all-time high of $5,000 before the June 28 expiry.
âThis positioning is being driven by traders front-running the launch of spot ETH ETFs,â Jake Ostrovskis, OTC Trader at Wintermute, recently told DL News.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 2.1% over the past 24 hours to $65,270.
- Ethereum is down 2.5% to $3,500.
What weâre reading
Eric Johansson is DL Newsâ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.